Tracking Results: 2020 Year end Results

 See about how i track results here

 

2020 was a very bad  year for my portfolio but also was a year i learned a lot about the stock market and investing in general. My big position on Gulfport Energy ripped off all of my gains from previous closed positions. My positions on Greek banks, Gazprom and Macys start recovering, while Facebook remained a stable winner.  Now there is a small chance that Gulfport makes a small recovery but probably i will lose the few euros left on it. Recovering has already started, i already hit the bottom. So i think better days are coming. During the last quarter i didn't add or sell any of my positions.


Equity: 12 working Salaries (money i have contributed to the market till now)

Closed positions:

Paperpack Manufacturer (PPAK) : + 65.7 %
Public Power Corporation (DEH): + 65.19
National bank of Greece(ETE): + 99.89%
Pireus Bank: +64.61 %

Profit from closed positions: 4,8 working salaries.


 Portfolio: 
 My Portfolio now  consists of 6 stocks. 

2 Greek stocks: Tpeir (Pireus Bank) and Alphabank.
2 energy stocks: Gulfport Energy (a natural gas upstream company) and Gazprom the biggest natural gas producer in the world 
Lastly i have Facebook and  Macy's.

  In the following  graphs i list the stocks By weight, Country and Sector-industry

 




 




Total Loss: 2  working salaries

Year on Year monthly  passive income:  - 69% of  monthly working Salary

 2020 4rd Quarter Results (monthly adjusted): 19% of monthly working salary  every month

 ROI   ↓ -16.7%  ( This is the total returns i got from my net contributions since i have started investing in the market)

 

Performance Comparison
 
4rd quarter
My portfolio: 6.48%
S&P: 12.14%

1 year
My portfolio:↓ -48.8%
S&P: 18.4%

Tracking Results: 3rd Quarter 2020

 

See about how i track results here

 
In the 3nd quarter   i almost entirely lost the gains from 2nd quarter recovery , i didnt invest in any new stocks and i have left my portfolio without any new changes. Gulfport energy stock dragged my portfolio way down and i am currently  holding many losing stocks  with  high risk and with quite depressing expectations outlook  .  I still remain positive about the future and my ability to do better choices and achieve high returns.  If Gulfport dont go bust, i am not expecting big losses in the next quarter since my losers already lost most of their value.

Equity: 12 working Salaries (money i have contributed to the market till now)

Closed positions:

Paperpack Manufacturer (PPAK) : + 65.7 %
Public Power Corporation (DEH): + 65.19
National bank of Greece(ETE): + 99.89%
Pireus Bank: +64.61 %

Profit from closed positions: 4,8 working salaries.


 Portfolio: 
 My Portfolio now  consists of 6 stocks. 

2 Greek stocks: Tpeir (Pireus Bank) and Alphabank.
2 energy stocks: Gulfport Energy (a natural gas upstream company) and Gazprom the biggest natural gas producer in the world 
Lastly i have Facebook and  Macy's.

  In the following  graphs i list the stocks By weight, Country and Sector-industry

 


 



Total Loss: 2.6 working salaries

Year on Year monthly  passive income:  - 50% of  monthly working Salary

 2020 3rd Quarter Results (monthly adjusted): lost about  70% of monthly working salary  every month

 ROI   ↓ -21.5%  ( This is the total returns i got from my net contributions since i have started investing in the market)


Performance Comparison
 
3rd quarter
My portfolio: ↓-18.29%
S&P: 8.47%

1 year
My portfolio:↓-45.1%
S&P: 10.7%

10 largest Market cap Hypothetical Portfolio 1 year returns

 Last year i decided to track a simple strategy of investing in the 10 largest market cap stocks for a year and then re-balance it every year. The results were stunning.

The hypothetical portfolio was based on a initial capital of about 10,000 euros . Each stock would approximately  weight about 10% of the portfolio. Since some stocks were very expensive they got more. Same with re-balancing. The re-balance wont be perfect. But more or less i will be close in following the strategy of owning the 10 largest cap stocks. This strategy is simple.

The stocks were bought in 9/9/2019.  Total Amount Invested: 11,216.13$

So here are the stocks that made the list:

1. Microsoft (8 stocks, price:136)   1088$ (weigh: 9.7%)

2. Apple (16 stocks, price: 55.90)  894.4$ (weigh: 7.97%)

3. Amazon ( 1 stock, price: 1833.51) 1833.51$ (weigh: 16.35%)

4. Alphabet A-Google (1 stock, price: 1205.7) 1205.7$ ( weigh: 10.75%)

5. Facebook ( 7 stocks, price: 190.9) 1336.3$ (11.9%)

6. Berkshire Hathaway ( 4 stocks, price: 210.91) 843.64$ (weigh: 7.5%)

7. Alibaba  (7 stocks, price: 170.78) 1195.46$ (weigh: 10.66% )

8. Tencent ( 20 stocks, price: 43.3) 866$ (weigh: 7.72% )

9. JPMorgan (8 stocks, price: 117.19)  937.52$ (weigh: 10.66% )

10. Johnson & Johnson ( 8 stocks, price: 126.95) 1015.6$ (weigh: 8.36%)




1 year later the portfolio  appreciated 45%,beating S&P and most of all other  portfolios you will find.  I assumed 30% tax on dividends and no transaction costs .

Here is a more detailed view of the returns

1. Apple (↑ 103.95%)  +dividends   (↑ 108.19%)

2. Amazon ( ↑79.11%)

3. Alibaba (↑57.5%)

4. Microsoft (↑ 51.35%) +dividends   (↑ 52.40%)

5. Tencent (↑50.07%) +dividends   (↑ 50.31%)

6. Facebook (↑40.92%)

7.  Alphabet A-Google (↑24.42%)

8. Johnson & Johnson ( ↑15.72%) +dividends   (↑17.88 %)

9. Berkshire Hathaway (↑3.27%)

10. JPMorgan (↓-14.30%)  +dividends   (↓-12.15%)

Total: 16,289.805 (↑45.24%)

 

 

Now that was  time to reallocate. Amazon was too big to do any sale  but i tried with the rest to do the best i could. First, 2 stocks needed to be removed from the list was JP Morgan and marginally Johnson and Johnson. New additions would be Visa and Walmart. Since Johnson and Johnson was very close to Walmart, i kept it and i  only replaced  JP Morgan with Visa.  

I sold 3 shares of Apple, 2 shares of Alibaba, 1 share of Facebook, 1 share of  Microsoft and all shares of J&P Morgan. That gave me back cash of 2180.85.44$ , 407.17$ were profits. With that cash and the total dividends i received in one year period of 93.575$. I bought  1 more share of J&J, 3 shares of Berkshire Hathaway and added 7 shares of Visa to the portfolio.  


Here how the Portfolio is at 10/09/2020 after re- allocation. Total: 16244$ + cash: 45.805

1. Microsoft (7 stocks, price:205.37)   1437.59$ (weigh: 8.85%)

2. Apple (13 stocks, price:113.49) 1475.37$ (weigh:9.01%)

3. Amazon ( 1 stock, price: 3284) 3284$ (weigh: 20.22%)

4. Alphabet A-Google (1 stock, price: 1526.05) 1526.05$ ( weigh: 9.39%)

5. Facebook ( 6 stocks, price: 268.09) 1608.54$ (9.9%)

6. Berkshire Hathaway ( 7 stocks, price: 217.8) 1524.6$ (weigh: 9.38%)

7. Alibaba  (5 stocks, price: 267.55) 1337.75$ (weigh: 8.23% )

8. Tencent ( 20 stocks, price: 64.98) 1299.6$ (weigh: 8% )

9. Johnson & Johnson ( 9 stocks, price: 146.91) 1322.19$ (weigh: 8.14%)

10. Visa ( 7 stocks, price: 204.17) 1429.19$ (weigh: 8.8%)



10 largest market cap stocks portfolio

So as you see the Amazon stock is more weighed due to the high price of stock per share relative to the size of the portfolio. In the future they will probably make a stock split and would be easier to weigh it on near the 10% target.  

45% returns in such a troubled period shows how the large market players  can gain instead of losing during a crisis by wiping out smaller players . 

 By comparison S&P returns during that period with dividends were around 14.1%.

 10 Largest market cap stocks returns: (↑45.24%)

S&P Returns:  (↑14.08%)

Nadaq returns: (↑35%)

S&P Outperformance:   31.16%

Nasdaq Outperformance:   10.24%


Lets see how the next year will be!  With this easy to apply strategy

Gulfport Energy what to expect for Q3 and Q4? Valuation

gulfport evergy logo

Here we are after 2 quarters of terrible results from Gulfport Energy. I'll present you  some information that will help you to better understand how this stock moves and what are the drivers of value.

 What made this stock to plummet ?

1)  Low Natural gas prices

2) Gulfport took big Asset impairment losses

 and recently

3) Not well perceived latest earnings call conference (management didn't let Q&A and pointed  out their ability to continue as a going concern)

 Impairment losses

Big write-offs from the balance sheet caused huge losses to the equity holders in the previous 2 quarters. Though these were paper losses this brought book value  from 20 dollars per share to 1.45 dollars per share. This came from a substantial  depreciation of Gulfport Energy Assets. 

 Why this happened?

Natural gas prices  were at all time lows and that putted pressure to all natural gas producers so did to Gulfport Energy. This caused Gulfport Energy to adjust and revalue the worth of it's Assets . These  losses are not real losses in cash, but come from the impairment of Assets  to be able to produce the required profits in the future ,that would make these assets worth  their original acquired value. This goes back to what gives these assets value.

 The value of Assets come from their ability to produce profit  in the future.  The impairment  losses are the realization that the  historic  cost of these assets differ a lot from their current value. so a loss should be realized in the books. These losses    are considered permanent but again this is just an estimation and in case the prices of natural gas and profitability recover there is space for  reversal of this impairment at some level.

 Revenue sources

 Before valuing the business and the near term prospects we must know where the companies revenue come from. 90% comes from sales Natural gas , the rest 10% from natural gas liquids(NGL) and Oil. So the revenue  depends on the quantity they produce and the price these commodities have.

 

The price of natural gas is counted in Million cubic feet (Mcf)  or British thermal unit (Btu) which are approximately equal. The nat gas liquids and oil can then be converted to Mcf equivalents(Mcfe) for better comparison. So now we can project the revenues,  we just want to know the price of Mcfe and the Mcfe they produce per day (Mcfepd).

For this year due to low energy  prices, the  management had decided to cut the production  and projected an average production of 1000-1075 Million cubic feet  per day(MMcfe) for 2020. The 2 first quarters fell into this range and the management is aiming for this goal in the next 2 quarters.

 

Revenue= Price per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days

 Example: if the Price of   natural gas and gas equivalents is 2$ per Mcfe and the average average daily gas productions is 1000 MMcfe then we can calculate the revenues.

1MMcfe= 1000 Mcfe , so 1000 MMcfe= 1 million Mcfe  

if we have production of 1 million Mcfe per day  and the Price is 2$ then we have  revenues of 2 millions per day, if the price is 2.5$  then we have 2.5 million per day.


 Costs

in the table below  taken from their presentation there is a break down of the  costs

 The cost of producing is between 0.90- 1.03 cents per unit .


Add to that the capital expenditures that are estimated to be  between 285 to 300 million and an interest expense of about 130 millions.

Cost= Cost per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days  + Capital expenditures +Interest expense




  

Previous quarters results

 Income

The first half of the year  saw average realized price of nat gas 1.99 dollars  per Mcf and after including oil and Ngls  that was 2.37$ per Mcfe. 

Total Revenues were 379,2 million dollars and

 Total Profit (excluding Impairment of oil and natural gas properties):  7.6 million

 including Impairment of oil and natural gas properties of about 1.086 billions they had 1.078 billions loss

Cash flow

Before moving on what to expect in the next quarter, it's necessary to look at the Cash flow statement because this will give us a better view of the cash circulation inside the business and help us  see their ability to fund their operations. 

 

here we see a summary of their cash flow statement

 


As we see their cash from operation in the 2 first quarter  were 247.222 millions  and their investing cash flow was - 230 millions, with capex of 275 million  that gave them a negative free cash flow  of 45 million. 

 Conclusion

They were on the edge of not being able to  self finance their activities if it wasn't for the additional 45 million of property selling s. 

In their presentations they understated  their capital expenditure , they claimed capex of 285 to 300 millions for the entire year. But when you look more carefully that's the expenditures they list as Depreciation and Amortization and not their actual capital expenditures. So what they claimed as capex for the six month period as 189 million was    275 million . So i think it's better to adjust  their capex for the year accordingly. I am not sure if this extra capital expenditures are not necessary for maintenance and should be counted off

What to expect ?

More costs

They have take or pay contracts. This means that they are obligated to deliver minimum quantities or pay fees for not delivering. They have take or pay contracts  for the remainder of 2020 to deliver  minimum daily volumes of 1,455,000 MMBtu per day.  Since they already acknowledged they will average of about  1,000 MMcfe to 1,075 MMcfe per day that's  is, if we do the conversion of about 400 MMcfe shortage per day. 

Fee cost are significant and should not be ignored.

 

 Higher  energy prices

The second half of  the year will see a recovery in the energy prices. That will help the revenues to rise up. Projections for 2021 show higher prices too. As for the compan has  already at the price of 2.78   424 MMcf  per day for natural gas and did hedges for NGLS and Oil. The hedges show that more than 40% of the coming revenues are hedged to price per Mcfe over 2.90.


How to play it?

this is a risky investment if they make it you make a lot of money if they arent able to self fund their operations,their operation is in the hands of creditors. 

Trading opportunities

This is a very volatile stock and may be more rewarding trading than holding it. The stock did a huge move from 0.54 cents to 2.74 in March in one day. Although this was a special occasion there are many days that makes moves 15%-20%


Fundamentals  short and longer-term

In this case you bet that the energy prices will be high enough to offset their costs from cashflow perspective. if they make it in the next 2 quarters you head for huge appreciation .Now you need to know the price that they will break even without needing to rely on credit facility .

This comes from the following equation.

Profit= Revenue - Cost => Profit= ( Price per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days )-

 (Cost per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days  + Capital expenditures + penalties for  not delivering the minimum daily volumes +interest Expenses). => 

Profit= (Price-Cost) per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days - ( Capital expenditures + penalties for  not delivering the minimum daily volumes + Interest Expense).

 

 So to break even   we need (Price-Cost) per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days  -Interest expense = Capital expenditures + penalties for  not delivering the minimum daily volumes.


 

 How to solve this?

First you need to know how to convert the Oil and NGls  price to Natural gas equivalent . this is not standard but approximately you can  convert the price of oil to a nat gas equivalent by dividing it by 6 and NGLs to nat gas equivalent by multiplying it by 7.  Then we need to see what percentage of the production comes from each commodity.  We know that 91% is natural gas  3% oil and 6% NGLs.

1) Use the calculator below to convert  the commodities prices to  a Price of Mcfe

NG price ($/Mcf):

Oil price ($/Bbl):

NGLS price ($/Gal):

2) Use the guidance for average daily production volumes  (1000 mcfe - 1075 Mcfe) 

and the cost per Mcfe (0.93-1.03) $ 

 3) Use the guidance for the Capex or estimate it 

since you dont know the fees and the capex may differ, see how much space they have based on the price you set to break even. 

 Chances are that the fees will be quite substantial and they will need to use  money from their credit facility. it's good to have a view of their current liquidity 

 

 

They have have  256 million available  to use. That's looks adequate for the  next 2 quarters, but their performance will decide on what terms they will refinance their dept. This credit facility matures in December of 2021 and bad performance  may prevent them from being able to borrow on favorable terms or be given any credit to refinance their dept and that may lead them to default.

  In the calculator below  you can plug different prices per Mcfe to see how much money they can pay  to Capex and fees without relying on new credit. Max number of production for 2 quarters can be 182.

Price ($/Mcfe):

Average daily volume:

Number of days:

Valuation

 Lets ignore their immediate risk and try to do a more holistic approach of a fair valuation.  The safest way is to value their Proven reserves. 

Proven Reserves: 4.5 Tcfe.

4.5 Tcfe = 4.5 Billion Mcfe .  

then we all need to know the average price of Mcfe longer term and the yearly production to see how many years the reserves can last. 

If they produce 450.000 MMcfe per year that  equals to an average  of about 1.300 MMcfe  daily volume. This is an achievable production near to their usual operation, with that in mind their proven reserves can last about 10 years.

Calculate the Total profit for equity holders: 

Total profit= (Price- cost per unit)* Production - Capital expenditures - Interest expense - Total Dept.

For cost per unit i will use higher than the current , which is closer to the older one when they had higher production

 

 a 1.06 $/Mcfe looks appropriate. As for Capex i will put 600 million annually or 6 billion for 10 years that looks more than enough, and on the safe side based on their current capex, which is not aiming for growth  but just maintenance. As for interest expense it looks more tricky, they are currently paying about 130 million per year. but the logical step is to pay the dept first,  if we are assuming the termination of the business after the reserves deplete in ten years. Lets assume that this will save them 30 million annually in interest and that's about 100 millions annually or 1 billion in 10 years.


I will use as inputs for the prices some longer term projections.

 lets say an Oil price of 60 $/bbl and natural gas of 3$/Mcf. I didnt find a price for NGLs but usually it falls between  the middle. I  convert bbl to Mcfe  and then take the average  to estimate Ngls price/Mcfe.

With this inputs i get a price of  3.42 $/Mcfe

So now i have what i need to calculate Total profit in 10 years time for equity holders.

 

Total Profit= (3.42-1.06)*4,5 billions - 6 billion- 1 billion- 1.91 billions= 1,71 billion dollars in ten years.

 Now i need to adjust this for the risk.

Their corporate bonds are rated Caa1.This places them to speculative bonds . Non investment-grade bonds can have  probability of default over 50% in a ten years time.  So i need to adjust for this risk  and bring this to   1.71*0.5 =  855 millions in ten years. Gulfport energy's corporate bonds  give  a yield to cost now of 12% so i use as a discount rate of 12% to find the present value of 855 millions.

Present Value of 855 millions in ten years with a discount rate of 12%  equals 

`PV= 855/(1.12^10)= 283 millions`   . There are about 161 millions shares outstanding   that's a price per share of  1.71$.


 ! It's Important to remember there is a short term risk  of not being able to refinance their 700 million dept and that would make it a current liability for 2021 . Credit   extension  will be decided according to their performance this year.