Showing posts with label Other. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Other. Show all posts

The truth about Dividend Investing

 

Dividend Investor


 It's so cool to see dividends coming right? owning companies that pay you dividend it's  so satisfying.  Yet we have to look at facts  and objectively speaking dividend investing is so inefficient way of investing and that includes all forms of dividend investing including  dividend growth investing, reinvesting dividends or living off dividends.



First of all we have to remember that dividends usually come from business earnings  ,a company that pays dividends has less money to re-invest and  grow. I say usually because a company can also borrow money to pay a dividend , but that is working for only a short period of time  . All people before retirement should only care for the growth of the value of the portfolio and not for the dividends they get from it. That's  because they are net contributors to their portfolio, they dont use the dividends to cover their expenses  ,meaning any form of return they get is re-invested to grow their portfolio till they reach their goal . By buying dividends stocks they just choose to take some money from the business  and reinvest them themselves instead of trusting the business. To be  clear it's not bad for  a company to pay a dividend, it's realistic. Money that cant be used  to bring   the required growth  for the perceived risk an  investor  gets by holding the stock   are better to be returned.Also more often than not businesses retain money to grow while it would be better to give back the money, if  that's the case we are talking about, this  can be reflected to a lower price, every stock price comes from expected returns. If you pay the right price even  if a company  doesnt do the best thing, you can get you fair market returns or even better than fair market returns if the stock is mispriced and positive surprises happen in the future. On the contrary a company that does everything at it's optimum can give you worse returns  than "fair" because maybe you bought at  a very high price  when  all the positives were priced , no negative changes were considered and not much room for positive surprises were left .  The whole point is that it all comes to valuation. And the stock market works that way,  stocks that  pay dividends can be bad or good investments for you , even if they are good companies that afford to pay dividends. They can give you bad returns if you overpay for them , it doesnt matter if they pay a dividend or not. If you are not using the money from dividends to cover your expenses but to re-invest them, then focusing on the dividends  is an illusion . 

Dividend investing methods

 DRIP

That's when you choose instead of receiving the dividend to get it automatically re-invested in the same stock. What  is called DRIP, if the broker doesnt offer this choice, the investor can do this manually. That's like the company doing a buyback ,  that would only make sense if the stock was undervalued, the company decided to give you that money but you chose to buyback more of the stock. There is no rational reason behind doing this if you are dividend investor and you want the dividend. If you think that the company allocates the money it earns efficiently, then let it do the buybacks , and buy more of the stock if you have a reason to believe it''s undervalued. There are many companies that choose to do buybacks instead of paying a dividend but dividend investors ignore them

Dividend growth investing

 Nothing original here too, dividend investors fooling themselves that they are getting better returns from simple dividend investors by  investing in companies that grow their dividends yearly by more than 10%. Usually these companies have low dividend yield, lower than 2%.  Well again for this to become a 4%-5%  dividend yield  on cost stock ,it would take so many years that there is no real advantage of buying these over a no growing reliable  high dividend yield stock .If you only care for dividends and no capital appreciation, to see any excess  return from the low yield ,high dividend growth stock you may have to wait more than a decade .  What you actually do  is avoiding high dividend yield stocks that have more risk of being value traps than low yield stocks . So instead of higher  dividend performance  what you really  get is more safety by avoiding stagnating  or  companies on decline.


Living off dividends

If you are at the stage you have enough capital to retire then putting all your money on dividend stocks,  is a strategy that is not giving you better returns or safety.  If you are at the stage you can really live from passive income ,you are better doing  this by having a well diversified portfolio  that not consists only of dividend stocks. When the market crash , you will see your portfolio crash even if you hold dividend stocks you will feel the pain, you can also see companies cut dividends because they are changing the plans to avoid future risks.  The yield you usually aim from a dividend stock portfolio would be anyway less that 4%, that's your aim when you want to live off dividends. But there is a safer way to get a similar and better  yield from your portfolio without  relying on dividends and  constantly having to check the updates of  the companies you hold. You move into a fixed portfolio that allocates your money into Gold, Government bonds ,cash, commodities  and stocks. That way you can create a portfolio that gives you the returns you want with less risk. You get your returns by adjusting it  every year or quarter or whatever you choose , there are many  portfolios like these. That way you take advantage of  all the possible assets that the money can flow into  ,you have no need to assess individual companies and you reduce the risk of markets violent swings  .  You wont to  have to worry if  a company decides to cut the dividend , don't bet on that when a company does this you will sell the stock, the moment that this happens you will see the price of the stock fall significantly and you will lose more  than the small dividend


There is no real objective advantage of buying dividend stocks if you are active investor, only psychological advantages which ofcourse are of high importance ,that can make dividend investing strategy worth following.  You can follow any  strategy you want , you can do what you feel more comfortable doing and dividend investing  it's a good way to start but not a place to hide an investors ignorance  . I personally like dividend stocks if i considered them undervalued because  you can wait and collect some money while you are waiting the stock to come to their  fair value , i know how tempting is to look at dividends but i try to not stick to that especially when i chase big returns , i have to focus on where the excess returns come and those  come  by  capital appreciation when the stock is priced less on what fundamentals, growth  opportunities and risk indicate.


10 largest Market cap Hypothetical Portfolio 1 year returns

 Last year i decided to track a simple strategy of investing in the 10 largest market cap stocks for a year and then re-balance it every year. The results were stunning.

The hypothetical portfolio was based on a initial capital of about 10,000 euros . Each stock would approximately  weight about 10% of the portfolio. Since some stocks were very expensive they got more. Same with re-balancing. The re-balance wont be perfect. But more or less i will be close in following the strategy of owning the 10 largest cap stocks. This strategy is simple.

The stocks were bought in 9/9/2019.  Total Amount Invested: 11,216.13$

So here are the stocks that made the list:

1. Microsoft (8 stocks, price:136)   1088$ (weigh: 9.7%)

2. Apple (16 stocks, price: 55.90)  894.4$ (weigh: 7.97%)

3. Amazon ( 1 stock, price: 1833.51) 1833.51$ (weigh: 16.35%)

4. Alphabet A-Google (1 stock, price: 1205.7) 1205.7$ ( weigh: 10.75%)

5. Facebook ( 7 stocks, price: 190.9) 1336.3$ (11.9%)

6. Berkshire Hathaway ( 4 stocks, price: 210.91) 843.64$ (weigh: 7.5%)

7. Alibaba  (7 stocks, price: 170.78) 1195.46$ (weigh: 10.66% )

8. Tencent ( 20 stocks, price: 43.3) 866$ (weigh: 7.72% )

9. JPMorgan (8 stocks, price: 117.19)  937.52$ (weigh: 10.66% )

10. Johnson & Johnson ( 8 stocks, price: 126.95) 1015.6$ (weigh: 8.36%)




1 year later the portfolio  appreciated 45%,beating S&P and most of all other  portfolios you will find.  I assumed 30% tax on dividends and no transaction costs .

Here is a more detailed view of the returns

1. Apple (↑ 103.95%)  +dividends   (↑ 108.19%)

2. Amazon ( ↑79.11%)

3. Alibaba (↑57.5%)

4. Microsoft (↑ 51.35%) +dividends   (↑ 52.40%)

5. Tencent (↑50.07%) +dividends   (↑ 50.31%)

6. Facebook (↑40.92%)

7.  Alphabet A-Google (↑24.42%)

8. Johnson & Johnson ( ↑15.72%) +dividends   (↑17.88 %)

9. Berkshire Hathaway (↑3.27%)

10. JPMorgan (↓-14.30%)  +dividends   (↓-12.15%)

Total: 16,289.805 (↑45.24%)

 

 

Now that was  time to reallocate. Amazon was too big to do any sale  but i tried with the rest to do the best i could. First, 2 stocks needed to be removed from the list was JP Morgan and marginally Johnson and Johnson. New additions would be Visa and Walmart. Since Johnson and Johnson was very close to Walmart, i kept it and i  only replaced  JP Morgan with Visa.  

I sold 3 shares of Apple, 2 shares of Alibaba, 1 share of Facebook, 1 share of  Microsoft and all shares of J&P Morgan. That gave me back cash of 2180.85.44$ , 407.17$ were profits. With that cash and the total dividends i received in one year period of 93.575$. I bought  1 more share of J&J, 3 shares of Berkshire Hathaway and added 7 shares of Visa to the portfolio.  


Here how the Portfolio is at 10/09/2020 after re- allocation. Total: 16244$ + cash: 45.805

1. Microsoft (7 stocks, price:205.37)   1437.59$ (weigh: 8.85%)

2. Apple (13 stocks, price:113.49) 1475.37$ (weigh:9.01%)

3. Amazon ( 1 stock, price: 3284) 3284$ (weigh: 20.22%)

4. Alphabet A-Google (1 stock, price: 1526.05) 1526.05$ ( weigh: 9.39%)

5. Facebook ( 6 stocks, price: 268.09) 1608.54$ (9.9%)

6. Berkshire Hathaway ( 7 stocks, price: 217.8) 1524.6$ (weigh: 9.38%)

7. Alibaba  (5 stocks, price: 267.55) 1337.75$ (weigh: 8.23% )

8. Tencent ( 20 stocks, price: 64.98) 1299.6$ (weigh: 8% )

9. Johnson & Johnson ( 9 stocks, price: 146.91) 1322.19$ (weigh: 8.14%)

10. Visa ( 7 stocks, price: 204.17) 1429.19$ (weigh: 8.8%)



10 largest market cap stocks portfolio

So as you see the Amazon stock is more weighed due to the high price of stock per share relative to the size of the portfolio. In the future they will probably make a stock split and would be easier to weigh it on near the 10% target.  

45% returns in such a troubled period shows how the large market players  can gain instead of losing during a crisis by wiping out smaller players . 

 By comparison S&P returns during that period with dividends were around 14.1%.

 10 Largest market cap stocks returns: (↑45.24%)

S&P Returns:  (↑14.08%)

Nadaq returns: (↑35%)

S&P Outperformance:   31.16%

Nasdaq Outperformance:   10.24%


Lets see how the next year will be!  With this easy to apply strategy

When are you financially free?


Ancient Athens and Sparta: Women/Slaves | Sutori

Warren Buffet the most famous investor of all time once said  '' if you dont find a way to make money while you sleep you will work until you die'' .You gain  financial freedom when you make money and cover your life expenses without you, needing to work for them . This means  you are not financially free when you can make a lot of money from your job  or you  have a lot of money waiting for you in your bank account, but you are financially free when you have a sum of money invested in assets that in return make  you enough money each year, to be able cover your annual living expenses.


Let's examine 2 objections that some may have on the statement of being financially free only   when you dont have to work for money and only if your money can produce you  more money.

1) What  if i love my job?

 It's great if you do something you love, getting paid for it and be able to  support your lifestyle with it. But would you do it for free? and if you would, how many hours of your life would you dedicate doing it for free? how sure you are that you will always be able to follow the required schedule your job needs and always be in mood doing it?  How safe you feel betting your life on the income you get from your job? What happens if for whatever reason you must stop? that's why loving your job is not the same as being financially free. 

2) What if i have so much money that can last till i die?

    You dont know the value of your money in the future,  new money is being printed in the market all the time that's what always was  happening, current nominal value of money lose their actual value in time. No one feels financially free when he gets poorer as he ages, this happens by 2 ways, one is by inflation (currency losing value) and the other one is by your annual expenses that are only about to increase every year.that means your bank account will have less money each year. Even if you dont care about leaving any inheritance behind you, human nature is always seeking for more not for less. You may think you are different  but more or less you belong in one of 2 categories of people. If you dont make money your survival instincts will  hit you and that will make you feel fear as you see your buying power and bank account value  diminish every year, on the other hand  if you are one of those people who  dont care about making money and feel safe of having a lot , then you will end up spending it faster than you think. That's why  many people who have  won a lottery or have inherited a big fortune ended up bankrupt, no one who is ignorant about his wealth can keep it. You dont want to spend money faster than you make.



Finally i need to add , you are not financially free just by covering your expenses with money you make from your investments, these cash flows must  also be safely produced and be predictable. Risky investments may produce higher returns in general but are not predictable.

The ideal scenario is to make money each year  that can cover your expenses and leave you some money  to re-invest, this will increase your cashflows each year.That's how you get financial abundance.

All in a small equation how much money do you need to have financial freedom?

 yearly cash expenses  = safe returns from Invested Capital

so what are considered safe returns from investments? generally anything  under 4%.


Check the post about  the 4% rule here!

The 4% rule


4% rule



The 4% rule shows  the amount someone can safely withdraw yearly from his invested money and theoretically never run out of money. So someone who can live with  annual expenses that are about4% of his invested money ,can safely retire.
 For example a person who has saved 1 million euros can retire with an annual  income 4% of that,  which is  0.04* 1 million = 40.000 euros annually  that's about 3.300 euros monthly.

The 4% rule is more a rule of thumb than an actual rule ,it is based on the assumption that an investor is invested on a safe diversified portfolio with a nice mix of bonds and stocks. These returns are based on historical data  of the last century  .The 4% rule was first popularized by an  influential 1998 paper by three professors of finance at Trinity University

Many have doubts about using the 4%, so many may use 3% but is even that safe? In the investment world there is the notion of the risk free rate, the risk-free rate is the return you get for bearing no risk.These are returns you get for investing in safe government bonds of  countries with zero default chance, for example U.S.A or Germany in the euro area. But take a look at what have happened in euro area the rates have turned negative, so this mean you pay interest for owning the bond.

 The conclusion after all these, is that you cant store your money safely  and rely on risk free-rates.Even the risk-free rates arent really  risk-free.U.S.A is considered to be the most stable and safe country and with no default risk. The same way people in the past  thought  the Roman empire will last forever!

The world isnt a safe place,we should know this  by now,we cant get rid of uncertainty but at least we can take less risks than the average person around us and that will make us feel safe enough. Given on how things are  now, as long as you invest in businesses  that produce value you can make money. A nice mix of real estate, stocks and bonds can easily give you 3-4 % . The good part is you dont even need to sale to get profits. You can create for example, a safe dividend portfolio that pays you divided of 3% and with growing dividends every year. Then you can sell a very small part of your portfolio each year to get the additional 1%.

The 4%  is something that looks  similar with what a pension after 25 or 30 years of work looks like. If you think about it, it is no different of what an average retiree gets after working for 25-30 years. 4% is if you reverse it 100/4=25 . That means if you make each year 4 from your job you need to work 25 years to make 100. 3% is 33 years of yearly income. So in other words you need to have stored 25 to 30 years value of work to retire.If you have already accumulated 25 -30 years of work you can retire on about that income.

  Paradoxically the 4% rule is inherited in our working life system. Work for at least 25 years and then you can retire.

 Retiring early through passive income for people that have an average job is a Utopia,especially if they want to follow  a passive investing strategy.
How early you can retire it depends on the relation between your income and expenses,if you have high income and average expenses then you can get quicker to the average income and retire earlier ,but if you have an average job to retire earlier you must live poor and retire as poor that's the trade off.

 If you need to take something valuable out of the 4% rule is that your yearly  income from your job worths about 4% of  the same income in retirement .If your goal is to retire earlier then you have to accumulate money that account for at least 25 years of work.

Why is critical to stop Coronavirus early?

Many claim that countries around the world are over reacting with the measures they're taking to stop coronavirus.

Opinions like the common flu kills more people or that only old people are in danger , not only devalue people that have  underlying health problems but are wrong too.  It's important to stop the virus as soon as possible and i'll explain you why.

First, the common flu kills 1 per  thousand people. Corona virus estimated death rate is about 3%.But if you actually see the stats , from the cases that are closed the death rate is as high as 10% .Then compared to common flu's transmission rate of 1.3 ,Coronavirus is  estimated 2 to 3.  You see  that the numbers show that Corona virus is much worse than a common flu.

Another reasons why Governments need to act without any delay, is because of  how fast the virus spreads and the inability of any health care system to cope with a sharp increase in demand for
 hospital treatment. Here is a diagram  that shows how a  no immediate action from government part's to slow coronavirus spread can break the health care system


Image result for coronavirus healthcare curve
 To see how critical is the early detection and slow down of the virus you must see how fast it grows, from the moment it hits 100 cases in couple of days it can grow 10 times , if left unchecked then in one week can go from 1.000 cases to 10.000. It is easy to see why there is a panic, there is no choice to do nothing from that point, it can go from 1.000 to 10.000 and then to 100.000 in no time. Usually the first week,the measures are taken, if they are successful ,you can slow the growth rate from 10 times to 3-5 times in the next week ,then to 2 and eventually control it. Usually the first 2 weeks is a good indicator on where you are going. 2 weeks of slowing down the growth can help you by the 3rd week control it.

A good example is south Korea and a bad example is Italy. Using a logarithmic scale in the diagram can help you see better of what i am talking about. In the following diagrams the vertical axe scale is adjusted so the  distance between each line is the same for each multiple of 10.So the distance from 10 to 100 is the same as from 100 to 1.000 and from 1.000 to 10.000 etc.

 
 

Using a logarithmic scale, helps you to see the magnitude of exponential growth and how easily the situation can get out of hand. A slope of the line that stays the same, show that the cases are growing at the same rate. A falling slope shows that the virus spread is slowing down. This maybe is not shown in absolute numbers immediately but it is shown on the growth rate. Having the same number of cases as the previous week doesnt seem a success especially when you have more than 10.000 cases but it is a big step on fighting the virus. And that's  why it is important to slow it down fast when the numbers are relative low . If the numbers are already high compared to the ability of the national health care system to treat patients and the growth rate isnt slowing down fast,then the tragedy is unavoidable. The key to success is to act fast when the number of cases are low and not delay to take drastic actions. The mistake is that humans have an innate tendency to compare and understand information linearly while the virus expands exponentially. 

That's why everyone needs to understand that governments dont overreact when they panic with small number of cases, they see the potentials of the virus to spread fast, if  governments or citizens dont co-operate and  do what it takes, then the effects can be even bigger than they look. It's false to think that you save the economy by not taking measures, the economy is destroyed even more.As we now see by not making travel bans from China sooner to not damage the economy, the economy has been damaged even worse.

No matter the origin of the virus ,the effects are visible ,and it's not useful now to politicalizing the problem , we all should be united to face it and get rid of it as soon as possible.

You can check  daily the new cases by country ,examine the logarithmic graphs and make your own conclusions here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/