Gulfport Energy what to expect for Q3 and Q4? Valuation

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Here we are after 2 quarters of terrible results from Gulfport Energy. I'll present you  some information that will help you to better understand how this stock moves and what are the drivers of value.

 What made this stock to plummet ?

1)  Low Natural gas prices

2) Gulfport took big Asset impairment losses

 and recently

3) Not well perceived latest earnings call conference (management didn't let Q&A and pointed  out their ability to continue as a going concern)

 Impairment losses

Big write-offs from the balance sheet caused huge losses to the equity holders in the previous 2 quarters. Though these were paper losses this brought book value  from 20 dollars per share to 1.45 dollars per share. This came from a substantial  depreciation of Gulfport Energy Assets. 

 Why this happened?

Natural gas prices  were at all time lows and that putted pressure to all natural gas producers so did to Gulfport Energy. This caused Gulfport Energy to adjust and revalue the worth of it's Assets . These  losses are not real losses in cash, but come from the impairment of Assets  to be able to produce the required profits in the future ,that would make these assets worth  their original acquired value. This goes back to what gives these assets value.

 The value of Assets come from their ability to produce profit  in the future.  The impairment  losses are the realization that the  historic  cost of these assets differ a lot from their current value. so a loss should be realized in the books. These losses    are considered permanent but again this is just an estimation and in case the prices of natural gas and profitability recover there is space for  reversal of this impairment at some level.

 Revenue sources

 Before valuing the business and the near term prospects we must know where the companies revenue come from. 90% comes from sales Natural gas , the rest 10% from natural gas liquids(NGL) and Oil. So the revenue  depends on the quantity they produce and the price these commodities have.

 

The price of natural gas is counted in Million cubic feet (Mcf)  or British thermal unit (Btu) which are approximately equal. The nat gas liquids and oil can then be converted to Mcf equivalents(Mcfe) for better comparison. So now we can project the revenues,  we just want to know the price of Mcfe and the Mcfe they produce per day (Mcfepd).

For this year due to low energy  prices, the  management had decided to cut the production  and projected an average production of 1000-1075 Million cubic feet  per day(MMcfe) for 2020. The 2 first quarters fell into this range and the management is aiming for this goal in the next 2 quarters.

 

Revenue= Price per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days

 Example: if the Price of   natural gas and gas equivalents is 2$ per Mcfe and the average average daily gas productions is 1000 MMcfe then we can calculate the revenues.

1MMcfe= 1000 Mcfe , so 1000 MMcfe= 1 million Mcfe  

if we have production of 1 million Mcfe per day  and the Price is 2$ then we have  revenues of 2 millions per day, if the price is 2.5$  then we have 2.5 million per day.


 Costs

in the table below  taken from their presentation there is a break down of the  costs

 The cost of producing is between 0.90- 1.03 cents per unit .


Add to that the capital expenditures that are estimated to be  between 285 to 300 million and an interest expense of about 130 millions.

Cost= Cost per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days  + Capital expenditures +Interest expense




  

Previous quarters results

 Income

The first half of the year  saw average realized price of nat gas 1.99 dollars  per Mcf and after including oil and Ngls  that was 2.37$ per Mcfe. 

Total Revenues were 379,2 million dollars and

 Total Profit (excluding Impairment of oil and natural gas properties):  7.6 million

 including Impairment of oil and natural gas properties of about 1.086 billions they had 1.078 billions loss

Cash flow

Before moving on what to expect in the next quarter, it's necessary to look at the Cash flow statement because this will give us a better view of the cash circulation inside the business and help us  see their ability to fund their operations. 

 

here we see a summary of their cash flow statement

 


As we see their cash from operation in the 2 first quarter  were 247.222 millions  and their investing cash flow was - 230 millions, with capex of 275 million  that gave them a negative free cash flow  of 45 million. 

 Conclusion

They were on the edge of not being able to  self finance their activities if it wasn't for the additional 45 million of property selling s. 

In their presentations they understated  their capital expenditure , they claimed capex of 285 to 300 millions for the entire year. But when you look more carefully that's the expenditures they list as Depreciation and Amortization and not their actual capital expenditures. So what they claimed as capex for the six month period as 189 million was    275 million . So i think it's better to adjust  their capex for the year accordingly. I am not sure if this extra capital expenditures are not necessary for maintenance and should be counted off

What to expect ?

More costs

They have take or pay contracts. This means that they are obligated to deliver minimum quantities or pay fees for not delivering. They have take or pay contracts  for the remainder of 2020 to deliver  minimum daily volumes of 1,455,000 MMBtu per day.  Since they already acknowledged they will average of about  1,000 MMcfe to 1,075 MMcfe per day that's  is, if we do the conversion of about 400 MMcfe shortage per day. 

Fee cost are significant and should not be ignored.

 

 Higher  energy prices

The second half of  the year will see a recovery in the energy prices. That will help the revenues to rise up. Projections for 2021 show higher prices too. As for the compan has  already at the price of 2.78   424 MMcf  per day for natural gas and did hedges for NGLS and Oil. The hedges show that more than 40% of the coming revenues are hedged to price per Mcfe over 2.90.


How to play it?

this is a risky investment if they make it you make a lot of money if they arent able to self fund their operations,their operation is in the hands of creditors. 

Trading opportunities

This is a very volatile stock and may be more rewarding trading than holding it. The stock did a huge move from 0.54 cents to 2.74 in March in one day. Although this was a special occasion there are many days that makes moves 15%-20%


Fundamentals  short and longer-term

In this case you bet that the energy prices will be high enough to offset their costs from cashflow perspective. if they make it in the next 2 quarters you head for huge appreciation .Now you need to know the price that they will break even without needing to rely on credit facility .

This comes from the following equation.

Profit= Revenue - Cost => Profit= ( Price per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days )-

 (Cost per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days  + Capital expenditures + penalties for  not delivering the minimum daily volumes +interest Expenses). => 

Profit= (Price-Cost) per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days - ( Capital expenditures + penalties for  not delivering the minimum daily volumes + Interest Expense).

 

 So to break even   we need (Price-Cost) per Mcfe * average production per day  * number of days  -Interest expense = Capital expenditures + penalties for  not delivering the minimum daily volumes.


 

 How to solve this?

First you need to know how to convert the Oil and NGls  price to Natural gas equivalent . this is not standard but approximately you can  convert the price of oil to a nat gas equivalent by dividing it by 6 and NGLs to nat gas equivalent by multiplying it by 7.  Then we need to see what percentage of the production comes from each commodity.  We know that 91% is natural gas  3% oil and 6% NGLs.

1) Use the calculator below to convert  the commodities prices to  a Price of Mcfe

NG price ($/Mcf):

Oil price ($/Bbl):

NGLS price ($/Gal):

2) Use the guidance for average daily production volumes  (1000 mcfe - 1075 Mcfe) 

and the cost per Mcfe (0.93-1.03) $ 

 3) Use the guidance for the Capex or estimate it 

since you dont know the fees and the capex may differ, see how much space they have based on the price you set to break even. 

 Chances are that the fees will be quite substantial and they will need to use  money from their credit facility. it's good to have a view of their current liquidity 

 

 

They have have  256 million available  to use. That's looks adequate for the  next 2 quarters, but their performance will decide on what terms they will refinance their dept. This credit facility matures in December of 2021 and bad performance  may prevent them from being able to borrow on favorable terms or be given any credit to refinance their dept and that may lead them to default.

  In the calculator below  you can plug different prices per Mcfe to see how much money they can pay  to Capex and fees without relying on new credit. Max number of production for 2 quarters can be 182.

Price ($/Mcfe):

Average daily volume:

Number of days:

Valuation

 Lets ignore their immediate risk and try to do a more holistic approach of a fair valuation.  The safest way is to value their Proven reserves. 

Proven Reserves: 4.5 Tcfe.

4.5 Tcfe = 4.5 Billion Mcfe .  

then we all need to know the average price of Mcfe longer term and the yearly production to see how many years the reserves can last. 

If they produce 450.000 MMcfe per year that  equals to an average  of about 1.300 MMcfe  daily volume. This is an achievable production near to their usual operation, with that in mind their proven reserves can last about 10 years.

Calculate the Total profit for equity holders: 

Total profit= (Price- cost per unit)* Production - Capital expenditures - Interest expense - Total Dept.

For cost per unit i will use higher than the current , which is closer to the older one when they had higher production

 

 a 1.06 $/Mcfe looks appropriate. As for Capex i will put 600 million annually or 6 billion for 10 years that looks more than enough, and on the safe side based on their current capex, which is not aiming for growth  but just maintenance. As for interest expense it looks more tricky, they are currently paying about 130 million per year. but the logical step is to pay the dept first,  if we are assuming the termination of the business after the reserves deplete in ten years. Lets assume that this will save them 30 million annually in interest and that's about 100 millions annually or 1 billion in 10 years.


I will use as inputs for the prices some longer term projections.

 lets say an Oil price of 60 $/bbl and natural gas of 3$/Mcf. I didnt find a price for NGLs but usually it falls between  the middle. I  convert bbl to Mcfe  and then take the average  to estimate Ngls price/Mcfe.

With this inputs i get a price of  3.42 $/Mcfe

So now i have what i need to calculate Total profit in 10 years time for equity holders.

 

Total Profit= (3.42-1.06)*4,5 billions - 6 billion- 1 billion- 1.91 billions= 1,71 billion dollars in ten years.

 Now i need to adjust this for the risk.

Their corporate bonds are rated Caa1.This places them to speculative bonds . Non investment-grade bonds can have  probability of default over 50% in a ten years time.  So i need to adjust for this risk  and bring this to   1.71*0.5 =  855 millions in ten years. Gulfport energy's corporate bonds  give  a yield to cost now of 12% so i use as a discount rate of 12% to find the present value of 855 millions.

Present Value of 855 millions in ten years with a discount rate of 12%  equals 

`PV= 855/(1.12^10)= 283 millions`   . There are about 161 millions shares outstanding   that's a price per share of  1.71$.


 ! It's Important to remember there is a short term risk  of not being able to refinance their 700 million dept and that would make it a current liability for 2021 . Credit   extension  will be decided according to their performance this year.

 


Tracking Results: 2st Quarter 2020

See about how i track results here

 
Second quarter was overall better , there was a good recovery from the massive losses i had in the first.  Closing the quarter i sold my shares of Public Power Corporation(DEH) with the aim of re-buying in the future and i too the risk of buying more shares of Gulfport energy and average down my cost. Portfolio wise maybe that was too risky since it is my largest position and my performance is highly correlated with the performance of the stock.

Equity: 12 working Salaries (money i have contributed to the market till now)

Closed positions:

Paperpack Manufacturer (PPAK) : + 65.7 %
Public Power Corporation (DEH): + 65.19
National bank of Greece(ETE): + 99.89%
Pireus Bank: +64.61 %

Profit from closed positions: 4,8 working salaries.


 Portfolio: 
 My Portfolio now  consists of 6 stocks. 

2 Greek stocks: Tpeir(Pireus Bank) and Alphabank.
2 energy stocks: Gulfport Energy (a natural gas upstream company) and Gazprom the biggest natural gas producer in the world 
Lastly i have Facebook and Macy's.

  In the following  graphs i list the stocks By weight, Country and Sector-industry

 

 

 
Total Loss: 0.5 working salaries

Year on Year monthly  passive income:  - 26% of  monthly working Salary

 2020 2nd Quarter Results (monthly adjusted): made about  80% of monthly working salary  every month

 ROI   ↓ -4%  ( This is the total returns i got from my net contributions since i have started investing in the market)

When are you financially free?


Ancient Athens and Sparta: Women/Slaves | Sutori

Warren Buffet the most famous investor of all time once said  '' if you dont find a way to make money while you sleep you will work until you die'' .You gain  financial freedom when you make money and cover your life expenses without you, needing to work for them . This means  you are not financially free when you can make a lot of money from your job  or you  have a lot of money waiting for you in your bank account, but you are financially free when you have a sum of money invested in assets that in return make  you enough money each year, to be able cover your annual living expenses.


Let's examine 2 objections that some may have on the statement of being financially free only   when you dont have to work for money and only if your money can produce you  more money.

1) What  if i love my job?

 It's great if you do something you love, getting paid for it and be able to  support your lifestyle with it. But would you do it for free? and if you would, how many hours of your life would you dedicate doing it for free? how sure you are that you will always be able to follow the required schedule your job needs and always be in mood doing it?  How safe you feel betting your life on the income you get from your job? What happens if for whatever reason you must stop? that's why loving your job is not the same as being financially free. 

2) What if i have so much money that can last till i die?

    You dont know the value of your money in the future,  new money is being printed in the market all the time that's what always was  happening, current nominal value of money lose their actual value in time. No one feels financially free when he gets poorer as he ages, this happens by 2 ways, one is by inflation (currency losing value) and the other one is by your annual expenses that are only about to increase every year.that means your bank account will have less money each year. Even if you dont care about leaving any inheritance behind you, human nature is always seeking for more not for less. You may think you are different  but more or less you belong in one of 2 categories of people. If you dont make money your survival instincts will  hit you and that will make you feel fear as you see your buying power and bank account value  diminish every year, on the other hand  if you are one of those people who  dont care about making money and feel safe of having a lot , then you will end up spending it faster than you think. That's why  many people who have  won a lottery or have inherited a big fortune ended up bankrupt, no one who is ignorant about his wealth can keep it. You dont want to spend money faster than you make.



Finally i need to add , you are not financially free just by covering your expenses with money you make from your investments, these cash flows must  also be safely produced and be predictable. Risky investments may produce higher returns in general but are not predictable.

The ideal scenario is to make money each year  that can cover your expenses and leave you some money  to re-invest, this will increase your cashflows each year.That's how you get financial abundance.

All in a small equation how much money do you need to have financial freedom?

 yearly cash expenses  = safe returns from Invested Capital

so what are considered safe returns from investments? generally anything  under 4%.


Check the post about  the 4% rule here!